Investment Perspectives

A taxable brokerage account, taxed at ~22% on gains, beats a 401(k) withdrawal taxed at 35-37%. Here's the full framework for retiring a 7/6 ARM mortgage before the rate resets — and why the "refinance trigger" most people use is flawed.

Why is the S&P 500 near all-time highs if US debt is unsustainable? Because markets price the next 12-18 months, not the next 20 years. Here's a portfolio framework for staying long growth while insuring against the reckoning. Article 3 of 3 in the US Debt Series.

By the strict Minsky definition of a "Ponzi borrower" — one that can't even cover interest from its own income — the federal government now qualifies. History shows this kind of overextension resolves fast, not gradually. Article 2 of 3 in the US Debt Series.

$39.7 trillion and growing $8 billion a day — yet markets sit near all-time highs. History shows debt crises build slowly for years, then resolve in weeks. Article 1 of 3 in the US Debt Series.

Nationally, prices are stagnating — not crashing. But Austin is already down ~25% from its 2022 peak. The real answer isn't a single national forecast, but a market-by-market read on where the pressure actually sits. Article 4 of 4 in the Housing Market Series.

A $400K rental with $178/month "profit" is actually losing $19,200/year once real costs are counted. Here's the mechanism that builds real estate wealth anyway — and why it collapsed at $340 billion scale in China. Article 3 of 4 in the Housing Market Series.

A housing crash is supposed to open the door for renters. In China's case, it didn't. Here's the structural comparison that shows why — and what it means for the U.S. market. Article 2 of 4 in the Housing Market Series.

Wall Street institutions own just 0.36% of U.S. single-family homes — not the villain popular narrative suggests. The real story is your neighbor with 2-5 rental properties, and a first-time-buyer age that just hit 40 for the first time ever. Article 1 of 4 in the Housing Market Series.

QQQ holders gained SpaceX exposure within 15 days of its June 2026 IPO. VOO holders won't own it until mid-2027 at the earliest — and VGT/SMH holders never will. A look at the committees that quietly decide what's actually in your index fund.

Value beat growth in 6 of 9 decades since the 1930s — this decade is only the second sustained exception. And a big piece of "growth winning" may really just be NVIDIA, now over 13% of VONG, dressed in index language.